An alarming announcement from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has brought to light the likelihood of global temperatures surpassing the 1.5°C warming threshold within the next half-decade. However, this doesn’t necessarily imply that we’ll permanently cross the 1.5°C warming limit outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The possibility of a single year experiencing a 1.5°C rise in temperature presents a sneak peek into the potential consequences of breaching the 30-year global average limit. Adam Scaife, the long-range prediction lead at Britain’s Met Office Hadley Centre, underlines that there’s a 66% chance of temporarily reaching this mark by 2027, marking a historical first.
The potential breach hints at insufficient global measures to curtail greenhouse gas emissions causing climate change. The expected emergence of an El Nino weather pattern, combined with anthropogenic climate change, is partly to blame for the projected temperature hike, leading us into climatic terra incognita.
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This imminent El Nino raises concerns among the scientific community, as it’s predicted to exacerbate climate extremes, induce warmer weather in North America, and lead to droughts in South America, putting the Amazon at greater fire risk.
Over the years, the likelihood of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold has risen. For instance, a mere 10% chance was projected between 2017 and 2021. These estimates differ from those of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which are anchored in future greenhouse gas emissions, whereas WMO’s forecast leans more towards prediction-based weather forecasting.
In light of these findings, the WMO also anticipates a 98% chance of one of the upcoming five years toppling 2016’s record as the hottest year, which witnessed a global temperature rise of about 1.3°C.
Doug Parr, the chief scientist at Greenpeace UK, encourages the global community to perceive this report as a wake-up call to intensify efforts in addressing the climate crisis.
This news was based on the asaione article.
